Virginia Election Results Keep to the Pattern
by: Spencer Conover ‘10State’s voting history shows McDonnell victory was expected, not a referendum on Obama
Since the election of Democrat president Jimmy Carter in 1977, Virginians have elected governors from the opposite party of the president in each of the following off-year elections. Republican Bob McDonnell reinforced that trend last week, winning a decisive 58.61% of votes. The GOP also held onto the Lt. Governor’s post with incumbent Bill Bolling winning 56.51% of votes. The rout continued as Ken Cuccinelli waltzed into the Attorney General’s office with 57.51% of votes.
When asked for her reaction to the Republican victory, television and radio commentator Callie Crossley told The Tiger, “I was surprised that people were interpreting this as some kind of referendum on Obama.” Crossley was responding to claims from Republicans like House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va-7th District) who touted the McDonnell win as a victory over an intrusive Democrat government. For Crossley, this was an ordinary Virginia election. “This is the pattern of Virginia. It was unusual for Virginians to vote for Obama, not for Virginians to vote for Republicans.” True, the last Democrat to win Virginia was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Crossley even claimed McDonnell’s election was “exactly what was going to happen from the beginning.” Crossley’s not alone. McDonnell led polls for the majority of the race, suggesting his double-digit lead in October meant victory.
Patterson Professor of Government and Foreign Affairs, Dr. James Pontuso, points to campaign dynamics—not policies—as the reason for the GOP landslide. “I’m not sure this campaign had national significance in the sense of being anti-Obama.” It’s more important to understand why Obama was able to turn Virginia into a blue state: he brought out people who don’t usually vote.
“Campaigns measure two things,” Pontuso said. “They measure popularity and intensity.” The 2008 election was intense—African American voters wanted to elect the first African-American president.
Unfortunately for Deeds, “The constituency that was most absent in this gubernatorial race was African-Americans and young voters who had turned out in large numbers because Obama was exciting,” Pontuso said. “And Deeds wasn’t that candidate.”
Pontuso also questioned Deeds’ campaign strategies. “The very core of Deeds’ argument at the very beginning was the anti-woman McDonnell paper.” Deeds used McDonnell’s 1989 Regent University thesis to paint McDonnell as a social conservative who believes working women are “detrimental to the family,” but Pontuso says this argument “was completely disarmed” when McDonnell’s daughter, a well-spoken Iraq war veteran, took to national TV in defense of her father.
On his blog, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling called this the “biggest tactical error of the year for the 2009 elections,” citing 59% of voters believing the Democrat’s campaign was “mostly negative,” and only 34% thinking he made a compelling case for himself.
Pontuso did say that these Republican victories could mean trouble for Obama in 2010, particularly if he fails to pass new health care and environmental policies—his two big campaign issues.
Already, Republicans are seeing a bump in poll numbers for 2010. In a Gallup Poll released on November 11, Republicans were favored over Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters asked about the 2010 House elections. Gallup attributes this lead to an increase in support from independents. Among those polled, 52% of independents said they would support Republicans, while 30% said they would support Democrats.
With a whole year of politics ahead, this poll doesn’t tell us much about what to expect for the mid-term elections, but it does show us that Republicans have made a comeback among would-be 2010 voters. In July Democrats were favored 50% to 44%, and that gap shrank steadily, with Republicans jumping back on top in mid October. This is a trend that has some pollsters predicting a thirty-seat pick-up for House Republicans next year.
While Democrats continue to struggle with Health Care reform and unemployment rates continue to rise, Republicans are likely to see some increase in support. However, it seems voter turnout and campaign strategies were more responsible for the massive GOP victories than the so-called “policy referendum” Republicans have claimed.
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